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Post by Ted Rogers on Apr 23, 2013 1:21:49 GMT -5
Mentioned a lot of this in the player analysis already, but I'd like to point how much the 3 tribe divide has affected the game. At first, Nyonni victories and Matt's eviction put the target on them. Then Rob's very blatant gameplay ended up putting the target back on Saayazu, leading Zane's boot and Rob/Eddie being the target in the pairs twist. Now that Saayazu and Nyonni are so weakened, they are contemplating teaming up to target Tingbani, which is unscratched since the first 2 rounds. So basically you can look at the game from the perspective of 2/3 tribes teaming up to weaken the 1 stronger tribe, and then it flipping around again, sort of like the 3 branches of the government keeping everything in check and preventing 1 branch from becoming too powerful. It's kinda of fascinating in a way, reminds me a lot of how Sausage Island 4 went down with the 3 tribes.
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Post by Amanda Kimmel on Apr 23, 2013 9:55:54 GMT -5
First off, sorry about last night. My Internet cut off and when I couldn't get it working again, I just went to bed. I definitely see this like Sausage IV and the undoing of Desterrados. There are many ways this can play out, too - several including Steph or Brenda in the finals. Based on what I have seen, I have no idea how it will play out. This first vote will determine a lot, and I honestly see it being Corinne. Rob is too powerless. Why waste an early vote on him? I love that I have no idea what will happen next. That is what makes me love Survivor
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Post by Ted Rogers on Apr 23, 2013 15:44:44 GMT -5
This is a preliminary mathematical assessment based off the merge questionnaire. Rob and Gina have not done their answers yet, so it will be updated once they do. For Pete I went off his most recent bootlist since he refuses to answer the question.
These are the numbers in no particular order. I really should have made a table but I dont even have a proper word program on here. The higher your number, the worse off you are
Boo-9+7+6+9+4+3+5+2= 45 Gina-10+7+8+5+8+6+1+6+8= 59 Brenda-9+4+1+6+1+9+2+5= 37 Corinne-8+5+3+1+8+10+10+10= 55 Kat-7+2+5+7+2+4+8+6= 41 Morgan-6+8+2+4+9+7+9+7= 52 Steph-5+3+3+10+3+7+8+1= 40 Pete-4+6+9+8+5+5+4+4= 45 Rafe-3+4+6+7+4+3+5+1= 33 Nat-2+1+1+2+2+6+3+3= 20 Rob-1 +10+10+9+10+10+2+7+9= 68
Each of the individual numbers represent their voting placement. If you see a 10, that means someone wants that person voted off next, a 1 means they wanna take that person to the Final 2.
11. Rob=68 10. Gina= 59 9. Corinne=55 8. Morgan=52 7. Boo=45 6. Pete=45 5. Kat=41 4. Steph=40 3. Brenda=37 2. Rafe=33 1. Natalie=20
I this this is a pretty accurate depiction of the "social totempole", but not necessarily the boot order as immunity wins, un-predictable drama, idols, powers and future gameplay will change a lot of things, but it's good for making some general predictions.
Early Jury: Rob, Gina and Corinne
Ok, so some interesting things. Gina being 9th after Rob is pretty bad, but this is also a product of the fact Gina/Rob have not answered their questionnaire yet, I expect Gina will drop down to around 8 after answering, but that is still pretty bad. Rob is far in the lead with 68 which I doubt will change when they both answer, he has done some irreversible damage. Generally poor social games by all 3 of these players, and they have threat targets on them.
Mid-Jury: Morgan Boo Pete and Kat
Not so much poor social game as simply lack of it. They are not seen as a paramount threat, so they avoid Early Jury but no one wants to go to the end with them and have stronger bonds with other players. Pete is surprisingly higher up the ladder than I would have anticipated, his game has gotten better in the past few rounds. Kat is simply not active enough to be anything more than a pawn, which is unfortunate.
End Game Players: Natalie Rafe Steph and Brenda
The game has been going in this direction surprisingly for awhile. This was Rafe's preferred Final 4 since like Round 1, and not much has really changed. Amanda's assessment of Natalie was spot on as the winner, she is far ahead of everyone else with 20 points, and just looking at her scores you see all those 1s and 2s which mean Final 2 and Final 3 deals. She is in the best position of anyone by quite a bit.
Rafe, Brenda and Steph are not all separated by a lot, and a lot of the end-game will come down to immunity wins and Tiebreaker wins, of which Steph has an advantage in.
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Post by Amanda Kimmel on Apr 25, 2013 11:32:00 GMT -5
Based on what I am seeing... Rob and Corinne might both form hidden immunity idols and play them. Which means ALL ELEVEN VOTES will be nulled. Holy shit, I've never seen that happen before.
If that happens, then there's a new round of voting. Rob and Rafe both realize that Brenda is not loyal to them and decide to vote her out, while Brenda tries to gun for Boo because he's Rob's goat.
I hope that does happen. Just imagine the chaos...
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Post by Amanda Kimmel on Apr 25, 2013 13:23:52 GMT -5
I also have to wonder if somebody's gonna grimapple here. Vote random, two idols played, someone ends up like Hupu in Fail Island.
I have a feeling this is going to be a crazy vote. No wonder we only have one parchment so far - nobody knows what's going on!
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Post by Ted Rogers on Apr 25, 2013 16:02:58 GMT -5
After Rob's Answers:
11. Rob=68 10. Gina= 59+8=67 9. Corinne=55+9=64 8. Morgan=52+6=58 7. Boo=45+3=48 6. Pete=45+5=50 5. Kat=41+1=42 4. Steph=40+2=42 3. Brenda=37+11=48 2. Rafe=33+7=40 1. Natalie=20+10=30
1. Natalie=30 2. Rafe=40 3/4 Steph and Kat=42 5/6 Brenda/ Boo=48 7. Pete=50 8. Morgan=58 9. Corinne=64 10. Gina= 67 11. Rob=68
A few placement changes, Brenda took a loss, we'll have a clearer picture after Gina answers.
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